Elections Prediction Markets on Polymarket
Elections prediction markets on Polymarket cover presidential and parliamentary races, primaries, leadership decisions and referendums worldwide, with live odds, volume and trader data on every market. Prices move continuously as polls, debates, endorsements and live counts land, which makes them a faster read than published forecasts. Where a race is close, open interest tells you how much capital is committed rather than how many people are watching. See top markets by open-interest below.
Elections prediction odds, volume, and forecasts
Polymarket’s Elections category currently has 1,766 live Elections markets about $3.1B in listed lifetime volume among the ranked events. Open interest on tracked Elections events is $117.9M. The most active listed event by lifetime volume is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Sorting by open interest versus volume will not rank the same events — one view is capital committed, the other is trading activity. Live odds here are implied probabilities from the leading outcome on each event, not a poll average.
Top Elections prediction market traders
| Trader | Elections P&L | Win rate | Markets traded | Open value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| qrpenc | $25.0M | 35.3% | 503 | $3.3K |
| Fredi9999 | $16.9M | 61.2% | 58 | $0 |
| WillEmerson | $13.5M | 85.7% | 37 | $8 |
| cigarettes | $10.9M | 49.5% | 20178 | $1.0M |
| ABM | $10.0M | 49.3% | 157 | $17 |
| XAE12Archangel | $9.4M | 52.5% | 109 | $29.6K |
| PrincessCaro | $6.1M | 79.0% | 26 | $0 |
| walletmobile | $5.9M | 100.0% | 1 | $0 |
| GCottrell93 | $4.6M | 83.3% | 16 | $64.2K |
| influenz.eth | $4.2M | 39.1% | 14703 | $6.7M |
Browse by topic
How Elections prediction markets work
Elections markets on Polymarket are contracts that pay out on a stated elections question. The listed odds are implied probabilities: a 0.64 price is a 64% live implied chance. Volume and open interest show how much trading and committed capital sit behind each price. Use this page to see what is trading, then open an event for the full rules.
FAQ
How many live Elections markets are on Polymarket?
There are 1,766 live Elections markets live on Polymarket as of today.
Which Elections market has the most volume right now?
Among the ranked live events on this page, Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 has the highest lifetime volume ($1.3B).
How accurate are Elections odds compared with polls and forecasts?
Elections odds on Polymarket are live betting odds: they are the implied probability of the contract as traded, not a poll or a model forecast. They can track polling when the book is deep, and they can diverge when liquidity is thin, when the resolution source differs from the poll, or when traders are pricing a different question. Treat them as a market price, then read the event rules.
Who are the top Elections prediction market traders?
The “Top Elections prediction market traders” table on this page ranks wallets by realized P&L in Elections, with win rate, markets traded, and open value. Each row links to that trader’s Polymarket Analytics page. Positions overlap categories, so this is Elections-scoped P&L, not the trader’s entire book.
Where can I find Polymarket Elections predictions data and analytics?
Right here. The Elections markets with the most capital committed are listed above, ranked by open interest, each with current odds, and volume.
Is there historical data for Polymarket Elections prediction markets?
Yes. Every Elections market has a full price history, live and resolved, so you can chart how the odds moved and compare them against what actually happened.