Politics Prediction Markets on Polymarket
Politics prediction markets on Polymarket cover elections, legislation, nominations and appointments, with live odds, volume and trader data on every market. Because traders are risking real money, a political market reprices within minutes of a debate, a poll or a resignation, often well ahead of published polling averages. Every market below shows how much capital is actually behind the price, not just what the crowd expects. See top markets by open-interest below.
Politics prediction odds, volume, and forecasts
Polymarket’s Politics category currently has 2,514 live Politics markets about $4.5B in listed lifetime volume among the ranked events. Open interest on tracked Politics events is $167.8M. The most active listed event by lifetime volume is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Sorting by open interest versus volume will not rank the same events — one view is capital committed, the other is trading activity. Live odds here are implied probabilities from the leading outcome on each event, not a poll average.
Top Politics prediction market traders
| Trader | Politics P&L | Win rate | Markets traded | Open value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| qrpenc | $25.3M | 38.6% | 1042 | $28.6K |
| Fredi9999 | $16.9M | 61.5% | 63 | $0 |
| WillEmerson | $13.5M | 85.7% | 37 | $8 |
| XAE12Archangel | $11.5M | 65.4% | 762 | $491.8K |
| cigarettes | $10.8M | 43.3% | 26849 | $542.7K |
| ABM | $10.0M | 44.5% | 219 | $20 |
| LlamaEnjoyer | $9.0M | 71.2% | 911 | $237.2K |
| aenews2 | $7.1M | 58.4% | 2984 | $2.0M |
| PrincessCaro | $6.1M | 81.0% | 28 | $0 |
| walletmobile | $5.9M | 100.0% | 1 | $0 |
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How Politics prediction markets work
Politics markets on Polymarket are contracts that pay out based on a stated political question — elections, nominations, legislative outcomes, or related events. The listed odds are the market’s implied probability: a 0.64 price on an outcome is a 64% live implied chance, not a poll or a forecast from a model. Politics markets are only as reliable as their resolution rules. Read the event text: nomination markets, election-winner markets, and “will X happen by date” markets resolve on different sources. These are still betting odds, not a substitute for polling, fundamentals, or official tallies. Use this page to see what is trading and where capital sits, then open the event for the full rule set.
FAQ
How many live Politics markets are on Polymarket?
There are 2,514 live Politics markets live on Polymarket as of today.
Which Politics market has the most volume right now?
Among the ranked live events on this page, Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 has the highest lifetime volume ($1.3B).
How accurate are Politics odds compared with polls and forecasts?
Politics odds on Polymarket are live betting odds: they are the implied probability of the contract as traded, not a poll or a model forecast. They can track polling when the book is deep, and they can diverge when liquidity is thin, when the resolution source differs from the poll, or when traders are pricing a different question. Treat them as a market price, then read the event rules.
Who are the top Politics prediction market traders?
The “Top Politics prediction market traders” table on this page ranks wallets by realized P&L in Politics, with win rate, markets traded, and open value. Each row links to that trader’s Polymarket Analytics page. Positions overlap categories, so this is Politics-scoped P&L, not the trader’s entire book.
Where can I find Polymarket Politics predictions data and analytics?
Right here. The Politics markets with the most capital committed are listed above, ranked by open interest, each with current odds, and volume.
Is there historical data for Polymarket Politics prediction markets?
Yes. Every Politics market has a full price history, live and resolved, so you can chart how the odds moved and compare them against what actually happened.