Geopolitics Prediction Markets on Polymarket
Geopolitics prediction markets on Polymarket cover conflict, ceasefires, sanctions, treaties and leadership changes, with live odds, volume and trader data on every market. These are the questions where conventional forecasting is weakest and disagreement runs highest. Many are long dated and thinly traded early on, which makes open interest the number to watch. A price backed by committed capital means far more than one set by a few speculative trades. See top markets by open-interest below.
Geopolitics prediction odds, volume, and forecasts
Polymarket’s Geopolitics category currently has 356 live Geopolitics markets about $969.6M in listed lifetime volume among the ranked events. Open interest on tracked Geopolitics events is $66.6M. The most active listed event by lifetime volume is Brazil Presidential Election. Sorting by open interest versus volume will not rank the same events — one view is capital committed, the other is trading activity. Live odds here are implied probabilities from the leading outcome on each event, not a poll average.
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How Geopolitics prediction markets work
Geopolitics markets on Polymarket are contracts that pay out on a stated geopolitics question. The listed odds are implied probabilities: a 0.64 price is a 64% live implied chance. Volume and open interest show how much trading and committed capital sit behind each price. Use this page to see what is trading, then open an event for the full rules.
FAQ
How many live Geopolitics markets are on Polymarket?
There are 356 live Geopolitics markets live on Polymarket as of today.
Which Geopolitics market has the most volume right now?
Among the ranked live events on this page, Brazil Presidential Election has the highest lifetime volume ($196.9M).
How accurate are Geopolitics odds compared with polls and forecasts?
Geopolitics odds on Polymarket are live betting odds: they are the implied probability of the contract as traded, not a poll or a model forecast. They can track polling when the book is deep, and they can diverge when liquidity is thin, when the resolution source differs from the poll, or when traders are pricing a different question. Treat them as a market price, then read the event rules.
Where can I find Polymarket Geopolitics predictions data and analytics?
Right here. The Geopolitics markets with the most capital committed are listed above, ranked by open interest, each with current odds, and volume.
Is there historical data for Polymarket Geopolitics prediction markets?
Yes. Every Geopolitics market has a full price history, live and resolved, so you can chart how the odds moved and compare them against what actually happened.