Weather Prediction Markets on Polymarket
Weather prediction markets on Polymarket cover hurricanes, temperature records, storm counts and seasonal outcomes, with live odds, volume and trader data on every market. They resolve on official meteorological data rather than judgement, so the criteria are exact. This is a smaller category with fewer traders than politics or sport, so check volume and holder counts before reading a thin market as a forecast. See top markets by open-interest below.
Weather prediction odds, volume, and forecasts
Polymarket’s Weather category currently has 352 live Weather markets about $40.1M in listed lifetime volume among the ranked events. Open interest on tracked Weather events is $1.8M. The most active listed event by lifetime volume is Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?. Sorting by open interest versus volume will not rank the same events — one view is capital committed, the other is trading activity. Live odds here are implied probabilities from the leading outcome on each event, not a poll average.
Top Weather prediction market traders
| Trader | Weather P&L | Win rate | Markets traded | Open value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar | $1.1M | 49.6% | 97819 | $185.9K |
| badatmath. | $559.3K | 76.0% | 28540 | $97.7K |
| bamesjond | $529.1K | 95.2% | 90 | $0 |
| god83743894 | $329.1K | 40.5% | 56274 | $55.2K |
| aapang | $323.6K | 43.3% | 7059 | $302.2K |
| opopv. | $308.8K | 70.7% | 23138 | $62.3K |
| VibeTrader | $307.1K | 47.2% | 7324 | $41.4K |
| gopfan2 | $269.1K | 56.0% | 347 | $76.2K |
| 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | $266.7K | 88.4% | 32499 | $67.6K |
| ShyGuy1 | $205.0K | 55.5% | 4276 | $112.3K |
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How Weather prediction markets work
Weather markets on Polymarket are contracts that pay out on a stated weather question. The listed odds are implied probabilities: a 0.64 price is a 64% live implied chance. Volume and open interest show how much trading and committed capital sit behind each price. Use this page to see what is trading, then open an event for the full rules.
FAQ
How many live Weather markets are on Polymarket?
There are 352 live Weather markets live on Polymarket as of today.
Which Weather market has the most volume right now?
Among the ranked live events on this page, Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? has the highest lifetime volume ($18.5M).
How accurate are Weather odds compared with polls and forecasts?
Weather odds on Polymarket are live betting odds: they are the implied probability of the contract as traded, not a poll or a model forecast. They can track polling when the book is deep, and they can diverge when liquidity is thin, when the resolution source differs from the poll, or when traders are pricing a different question. Treat them as a market price, then read the event rules.
Who are the top Weather prediction market traders?
The “Top Weather prediction market traders” table on this page ranks wallets by realized P&L in Weather, with win rate, markets traded, and open value. Each row links to that trader’s Polymarket Analytics page. Positions overlap categories, so this is Weather-scoped P&L, not the trader’s entire book.
Where can I find Polymarket Weather predictions data and analytics?
Right here. The Weather markets with the most capital committed are listed above, ranked by open interest, each with current odds, and volume.
Is there historical data for Polymarket Weather prediction markets?
Yes. Every Weather market has a full price history, live and resolved, so you can chart how the odds moved and compare them against what actually happened.